Churchill Downs

To be the unmatched leader in entertainment experiences by becoming the undisputed global leader in racing and gaming.

Churchill Downs SWOT Analysis

Updated: October 2, 2025 • 2025-Q4 Analysis

How to Use This Analysis

This analysis for Churchill Downs was created using Alignment.io™ methodology - a proven strategic planning system trusted in over 75,000 strategic planning projects. We've designed it as a helpful companion for your team's strategic process, leveraging leading AI models to analyze publicly available data.

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The Churchill Downs SWOT Analysis reveals a company at a pivotal strategic juncture. Its iconic Kentucky Derby brand and masterful diversification into high-margin gaming and Historical Racing Machines (HRMs) provide formidable strengths and a robust financial foundation. However, this success is shadowed by significant external threats from regulatory pressures and the negative public perception of horse racing, alongside internal weaknesses in digital platform innovation. The path to achieving its vision demands a dual focus: aggressively expanding its proven gaming and HRM growth engines while simultaneously investing heavily in technology and proactive safety initiatives. This strategy will fortify the company against threats to its core business, ensuring the legendary brand not only survives but thrives for another century. The next 24 months are critical for execution on this balanced growth and protection strategy.

PENN Entertainment Caesars Entertainment Boyd Gaming DraftKings FanDuel

No past cycles

Mission & Vision SWOT Analysis OKR Plan Retrospective AI Strategy Data Acquisition

To be the unmatched leader in entertainment experiences by becoming the undisputed global leader in racing and gaming.

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Strengths

DIVERSIFICATION: Gaming segment now ~50% of revenue, reducing seasonality
BRAND: Kentucky Derby brand drives record-breaking revenue and margin
HRM: Dominant, high-margin position in Historical Racing Machine market
CAPITAL: Proven ability to execute large, complex capital projects on time
CASHFLOW: Strong and predictable cash flow funds growth and shareholder returns

Weaknesses

REGULATION: Navigating complex, state-by-state regulations slows growth
SAFETY: Horse safety concerns create negative headlines and regulatory risk
DEBT: Increased leverage to ~$5.7B post-acquisitions limits flexibility
TWINSPIRES: Lagging innovation vs. sports-betting-first competitors
INTEGRATION: Risk in successfully integrating multiple large acquisitions

Opportunities

EXPANSION: New HRM facilities in states like VA, LA, and KY offer growth
IGAMING: Potential to leverage TwinSpires database for future iGaming entry
DEVELOPMENT: Greenfield development opportunities like the new KY track
DATA: Utilize vast wagering data for personalization and customer insight
INTERNATIONAL: Grow the Kentucky Derby's global media rights and wagering

Threats

COMPETITION: Intense competition in online sports betting from major players
ECONOMY: A recession could significantly impact discretionary consumer spend
LEGISLATION: Unfavorable changes to gaming tax rates or regulations
HISA: Federal oversight via HISA adds costs and operational complexity
PERCEPTION: Continued negative media coverage of horse racing's integrity

Key Priorities

DIVERSIFY: Accelerate gaming & HRM growth to counterbalance racing risks
MODERNIZE: Invest in TwinSpires tech to compete in the broader market
EXPAND: Execute flawlessly on the HRM and new property development pipeline
PROTECT: Proactively lead on horse safety to protect the core brand

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Churchill Downs OKR

Updated: October 2, 2025 • 2025-Q4 Analysis

The Churchill Downs OKR plan is a masterclass in strategic focus and execution. It rightly prioritizes the twin growth engines of gaming and digital, while protecting the core racing franchise. The objectives are bold and inspiring, and the key results are specific, measurable, and directly address the highest-leverage conclusions from the SWOT analysis. This plan provides extreme clarity, aligning the entire organization on what matters most: expanding the high-margin gaming footprint, modernizing the digital experience, and safeguarding the iconic Derby brand. Executed with discipline, this OKR framework will unlock significant shareholder value and solidify Churchill Downs' market leadership for the next decade.

PENN Entertainment Caesars Entertainment Boyd Gaming DraftKings FanDuel

No past cycles

Mission & Vision SWOT Analysis OKR Plan Retrospective AI Strategy Data Acquisition

To be the unmatched leader in entertainment experiences by becoming the undisputed global leader in racing and gaming.

DOMINATE GAMING

Become the undisputed leader in every regional gaming market we serve.

PIPELINE: Launch three new Historical Racing Machine entertainment venues on time and on budget this year.
INTEGRATE: Achieve full operational and system integration for all acquired properties, realizing $25M in synergies.
PERFORMANCE: Increase same-store gaming segment revenue by 8%, exceeding the regional market average growth.
DATABASE: Grow the cross-property marketing database by 2M customers, enabling targeted promotional activity.

REINVENT DIGITAL

Transform TwinSpires into the premier digital wagering experience.

PLATFORM: Relaunch the TwinSpires app with a new UI/UX, lifting user engagement metrics by 20% post-launch.
PERSONALIZE: Implement an AI-powered recommendation engine that increases bet conversion rates by 15%.
CONTENT: Integrate live streaming and rich statistical content for all CDI tracks, doubling average session time.
ONBOARDING: Reduce new user registration friction to decrease drop-off rate by 30% and boost first deposits.

EXPAND THE DERBY

Elevate the Kentucky Derby into a global, week-long entertainment phenomenon.

REACH: Increase international viewership of the Kentucky Derby by 25% through new media rights partnerships.
HOSPITALITY: Sell out all new premium hospitality offerings, increasing average revenue per guest by 18%.
SPONSORSHIP: Secure two new non-endemic Fortune 500 sponsors for Derby Week, growing sponsorship revenue by 20%.
EXPERIENCE: Achieve a 9.0/10 or higher guest satisfaction score for the entire Derby Week experience.

LEAD IN SAFETY

Set the global standard for equine safety, integrity, and welfare.

TECHNOLOGY: Deploy new biometric sensors and AI-driven monitoring systems across all CDI racetracks.
TRANSPARENCY: Publish a comprehensive annual welfare report detailing all safety initiatives and metrics.
STANDARDS: Achieve 100% compliance with all HISA regulations and partner with universities on three new studies.
PERCEPTION: Improve public sentiment scores related to animal welfare by 10 points in industry polling.

METRICS

Adjusted EBITDA: $1.2B
Net Leverage Ratio: < 4.0x
Free Cash Flow: $450M

VALUES

Integrity
Guest Focus
Innovation
Stewardship
Enthusiasm

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Churchill Downs Retrospective

AI-Powered Insights

Claude

Gemini

GPT

Churchill Downs Incorporated Q1 & Q2 2024 Earnings Reports and Investor Calls.
CDI 2023 Annual Report (10-K Filing).
Company investor presentations from Q3 2024.
Press releases regarding acquisitions (Exacta Systems) and capital projects.
Industry reports on US Gaming and Pari-Mutuel Wagering markets.
Reputable financial news analysis from sources like Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

PENN Entertainment Caesars Entertainment Boyd Gaming DraftKings FanDuel

No past cycles

Mission & Vision SWOT Analysis OKR Plan Retrospective AI Strategy Data Acquisition

To be the unmatched leader in entertainment experiences by becoming the undisputed global leader in racing and gaming.

Toggle Theme

What Went Well

GAMING: Segment delivered record revenue and margin, proving strategy
DERBY: Another record-breaking Kentucky Derby for handle and attendance
HRM: Continued double-digit growth from historical racing operations
PROJECTS: Major capital projects remain on schedule and on budget
BALANCE: Maintained strong liquidity despite significant investments

Not So Well

TWINSPIRES: Online wagering handle showed modest growth vs. competitors
INTEGRATION: Higher-than-expected integration costs for recent acquisitions
COSTS: Increased labor and insurance costs impacted property-level margins
REGULATORY: Headwinds from HISA implementation created uncertainty
SPORTS: Decision to exit sports betting has ceded ground to rivals

Learnings

FOCUS: Diversification into owned gaming assets is the right long-term play
CORE: The Derby's cultural and economic power continues to grow
EXECUTION: The team excels at large-scale project management
DIGITAL: A pure-play horse racing app faces challenges in a converged market
SYNERGY: Cross-promoting between segments remains an untapped opportunity

Action Items

ACCELERATE: Speed up deployment of new HRM machines in growth markets
INNOVATE: Greenlight a project to revamp the TwinSpires user experience
INTEGRATE: Finalize system integrations for all recent acquisitions by EOY
OPTIMIZE: Implement new cost-control measures at all gaming properties
LEAD: Publish a comprehensive report on technology and safety initiatives

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Organization	SWOT Analysis	OKR Plan	Top 6	Retrospective

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Churchill Downs Market

AI-Powered Insights

Claude

Gemini

GPT

Churchill Downs Incorporated Q1 & Q2 2024 Earnings Reports and Investor Calls.
CDI 2023 Annual Report (10-K Filing).
Company investor presentations from Q3 2024.
Press releases regarding acquisitions (Exacta Systems) and capital projects.
Industry reports on US Gaming and Pari-Mutuel Wagering markets.
Reputable financial news analysis from sources like Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

Founded: 1875
Market Share: Leading share in US pari-mutuel wagering
Customer Base: Racing fans, casino players, online bettors
Category:
Gaming, Entertainment
SIC Code: 7948 Racing, Including Track Operation
NAICS Code: 711212 Racetracks
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Zip Code: 40210
Congressional District: KY-3 LOUISVILLE
Employees: 7200

Competitors

PENN Entertainment View Analysis

Caesars Entertainment View Analysis

Boyd Gaming View Analysis

DraftKings View Analysis

FanDuel Request Analysis

Products & Services

No products or services data available

Distribution Channels

Churchill Downs Business Model Analysis

AI-Powered Insights

Claude

Gemini

GPT

Churchill Downs Incorporated Q1 & Q2 2024 Earnings Reports and Investor Calls.
CDI 2023 Annual Report (10-K Filing).
Company investor presentations from Q3 2024.
Press releases regarding acquisitions (Exacta Systems) and capital projects.
Industry reports on US Gaming and Pari-Mutuel Wagering markets.
Reputable financial news analysis from sources like Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

Problem

Limited premium entertainment options
Desire for thrilling, social experiences
Fragmented and untrusted wagering choices

Solution

Iconic, large-scale live events
Integrated casino gaming and racing
Secure, user-friendly online wagering

Key Metrics

Adjusted EBITDA
Gaming & HRM Revenue Growth
TwinSpires Active Players

Unique

Ownership of the Kentucky Derby
Market leadership in Historical Racing
Synergy between live events and online

Advantage

Irreplaceable physical assets
Exclusive state gaming licenses
Decades of proprietary wagering data

Channels

Direct-to-consumer via venues/website
Mobile App (TwinSpires)
Strategic media partnerships

Customer Segments

Regional casino gaming patrons
Pari-mutuel horseplayers
High-end corporate hospitality clients

Costs

Venue operating expenses and payroll
Marketing and customer acquisition
Capital expenditures for new projects

Churchill Downs Product Market Fit Analysis

Updated: October 2, 2025

Churchill Downs provides unmatched, large-scale entertainment experiences. By blending the thrill of iconic events like the Kentucky Derby with innovative gaming and seamless online wagering, it creates unforgettable moments and the exciting chance to win big. It's not just about racing or gaming; it's about delivering world-class, memorable entertainment that defines the category and creates lifelong fans.

EXPERIENCE: Unforgettable, world-class entertainment at iconic venues.

THRILL: The excitement of live racing and the chance to win big.

INNOVATION: Best-in-class technology for seamless gaming and wagering.

Before State

Limited, seasonal entertainment options
Fragmented betting and gaming experiences
Lack of premier, large-scale events

After State

Access to iconic, world-class events
Integrated, seamless gaming and betting
Unforgettable, premium entertainment

Negative Impacts

Boredom and lack of exciting outings
Inconvenient and untrusted wagering
Missed opportunities for memorable moments

Positive Outcomes

Creation of lifelong memories for guests
Profitable entertainment for customers
Increased local economic impact

Key Metrics

Net Promoter Score (NPS)

Est. 45-55

Customer Retention Rates

High for Derby

User Growth Rate

5-7% for TwinSpires

Customer Feedback/Reviews

4.2 stars avg

Repeat Purchase Rates

High for core users

Requirements

Significant capital investment in venues
Secure and user-friendly tech platforms
Commitment to operational excellence

Why Churchill Downs

Strategic acquisitions of gaming assets
Continuous reinvestment in properties
Expansion of digital wagering platforms

Churchill Downs Competitive Advantage

The Kentucky Derby is an iconic asset
Exclusive licenses for racing and gaming
Scale and expertise in HRM operations

Proof Points

Record-breaking Derby attendance/handle
Consistent growth in gaming segment revenue
TwinSpires is a top US wagering platform

Churchill Downs Market Positioning

AI-Powered Insights

Claude

Gemini

GPT

Churchill Downs Incorporated Q1 & Q2 2024 Earnings Reports and Investor Calls.
CDI 2023 Annual Report (10-K Filing).
Company investor presentations from Q3 2024.
Press releases regarding acquisitions (Exacta Systems) and capital projects.
Industry reports on US Gaming and Pari-Mutuel Wagering markets.
Reputable financial news analysis from sources like Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

Strategic pillars derived from our vision-focused SWOT analysis

Grow the Kentucky Derby into a global spectacle.

Aggressively expand our historical racing machine footprint.

Acquire and develop premier regional gaming properties.

Solidify TwinSpires as the top online betting platform.

What You Do

Premier racing, gaming, and entertainment.

Target Market

Thrill-seekers and entertainment consumers.

Differentiation

Iconic Kentucky Derby brand
Unique Historical Racing Machine assets

Revenue Streams

Gaming revenue (slots, table, HRM)
Pari-mutuel wagering commissions
Ticket sales and hospitality

Churchill Downs Operations and Technology

AI-Powered Insights

Claude

Gemini

GPT

Churchill Downs Incorporated Q1 & Q2 2024 Earnings Reports and Investor Calls.
CDI 2023 Annual Report (10-K Filing).
Company investor presentations from Q3 2024.
Press releases regarding acquisitions (Exacta Systems) and capital projects.
Industry reports on US Gaming and Pari-Mutuel Wagering markets.
Reputable financial news analysis from sources like Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

Company Operations

Organizational Structure: Segment-based: Racing, Gaming, TwinSpires
Supply Chain: Manages large venues, technology vendors
Tech Patents: Proprietary wagering tech, HRM systems
Website: https://www.churchilldownsincorporated.com/

Top Clients

Board Members

Churchill Downs Competitive Forces

Threat of New Entry

LOW: Extremely high barriers to entry due to massive capital requirements for properties and the need for limited state gaming licenses.

Supplier Power

LOW: Highly fragmented supplier base for gaming machines, hospitality services, and construction, giving CDI significant leverage.

Buyer Power

MEDIUM: While individual bettors have low power, the collective shift to online platforms with high promotional spend gives consumers choice.

Threat of Substitution

HIGH: Consumers have countless discretionary entertainment options, from streaming services and concerts to other sporting events and vacations.

Competitive Rivalry

HIGH: Intense rivalry in gaming from national operators (Caesars, PENN) and in online wagering from tech giants (DraftKings, FanDuel).

Analysis of AI Strategy

Updated: October 2, 2025 • 2025-Q4 Analysis

The Churchill Downs AI SWOT Analysis underscores a massive, latent opportunity. The company sits on a goldmine of proprietary wagering data, a key differentiator against competitors. This data is the fuel for AI-driven personalization, operational optimization, and even enhancing racing integrity. However, realizing this potential is threatened by internal inertia—legacy systems, data silos, and a potential talent gap. The immediate priority must be to break down these silos and build a unified data infrastructure. From there, a focused strategy on personalizing the TwinSpires experience and optimizing venue operations will yield the fastest returns. Using AI to proactively address horse welfare isn't just an opportunity; it's a strategic imperative to protect the brand. Churchill Downs must transition from a data-rich company to a data-intelligent one, using AI as the catalyst for its next wave of growth and innovation.

PENN Entertainment Caesars Entertainment Boyd Gaming DraftKings FanDuel

No past cycles

Mission & Vision SWOT Analysis OKR Plan Retrospective AI Strategy Data Acquisition

To be the unmatched leader in entertainment experiences by becoming the undisputed global leader in racing and gaming.

Strengths

DATA: Decades of proprietary pari-mutuel wagering data from TwinSpires
SCALE: Millions of customer data points from integrated gaming properties
PLATFORM: Existing digital infrastructure of TwinSpires for AI deployment
BEHAVIOR: Deep understanding of customer betting patterns and preferences
ASSETS: Physical venues to test and deploy AI for operational efficiency

Weaknesses

TALENT: Potential shortage of in-house AI/ML engineering and data science talent
LEGACY: Aging technology stacks may hinder rapid AI model integration
SILOS: Data may be siloed across racing, gaming, and online segments
CULTURE: A traditional business culture may resist rapid AI adoption
INVESTMENT: Lack of dedicated, significant budget for speculative AI R&D

Opportunities

PERSONALIZATION: AI-driven wagering recommendations and personalized marketing
OPERATIONS: AI for dynamic pricing, staffing optimization, and venue security
INTEGRITY: AI-powered analysis of racing data to predict and flag injuries
EFFICIENCY: Use generative AI to automate content creation and customer service
ACQUISITION: AI-driven marketing to lower customer acquisition costs (CAC)

Threats

COMPETITORS: Tech-native competitors (DraftKings) using AI more effectively
REGULATION: Future regulations on AI in gambling could limit applications
BIAS: Risk of algorithmic bias in wagering odds or marketing offers
SECURITY: AI systems present new, sophisticated cybersecurity vulnerabilities
ADOPTION: Customers may distrust or reject AI-driven betting recommendations

Key Priorities

UNIFY: Consolidate data across all business segments into a single platform
PERSONALIZE: Deploy AI to personalize the TwinSpires user experience
OPTIMIZE: Use AI to drive operational efficiency at physical properties
INNOVATE: Invest in AI to enhance racing integrity and animal welfare

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Churchill Downs Financial Performance

AI-Powered Insights

Claude

Gemini

GPT

Churchill Downs Incorporated Q1 & Q2 2024 Earnings Reports and Investor Calls.
CDI 2023 Annual Report (10-K Filing).
Company investor presentations from Q3 2024.
Press releases regarding acquisitions (Exacta Systems) and capital projects.
Industry reports on US Gaming and Pari-Mutuel Wagering markets.
Reputable financial news analysis from sources like Bloomberg and The Wall Street Journal.

Profit: Net Income TTM: $598 Million

Market Cap: $9.8 Billion (as of late 2024)

Stock Performance

Annual Report: Available on investor relations website.

Debt: Total Debt: ~$5.7 Billion

ROI Impact: High ROI on recent capex projects.

SWOT Index

Composite strategic assessment with 10-year outlook

/ 100

Market Leader

ICM Index

STRATEGIC ADVISOR ASSESSMENT

CDI is a Market Leader with an iconic, defensible core asset (Derby) and a proven, high-margin growth engine (Gaming/HRMs). Its North Star is ambitious and achievable. The OKRs are well-aligned to mitigate clear threats (racing perception) while seizing major opportunities (gaming expansion). The primary constraint on its iconic status is the societal and regulatory overhang on its core racing product, limiting its ultimate growth multiple despite strong operational execution and a solid strategic plan.

SWOT Factors

Upside: 86.7 Risk: 70.0

OKR Impact

AI Leverage

Top 3 Strategic Levers

Aggressively scale the high-margin HRM and regional gaming portfolio.

Modernize the TwinSpires digital platform with AI personalization.

Proactively lead on equine safety to neutralize the primary brand threat.

AI Disclosure

This report was created using the Alignment Method—our proprietary process for guiding AI to reveal how it interprets your business and industry. These insights are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, legal, tax, or investment advice.

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